Add funds to your Exodus Predictions balance and make predictions on events.
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In this article:
What is Exodus Predictions?
Exodus Predictions is an event-based prediction market.
You can fund Exodus Predictions from your Exodus Pay balance.
Once funded, you can buy or sell positions to make predictions on the outcome of events.
Where is Exodus Predictions available?
Currently, Predictions is available in Nigeria, Mexico, UAE, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Peru, and Sweden.
What are the fees?
Fees may apply when using Exodus Predictions:
Trading fees: A small fee applies when buying or selling predictions, which you can see before you buy or sell.
Adding and withdrawing funds: When adding or withdrawing funds, the confirmation screen shows the amount you'll pay and the amount you'll receive after any costs.
Which asset is used for my Exodus Predictions balance?
Your balance in Exodus Predictions is in Polymarket USD (pUSD) on the Polygon network.
Your balance is self-custodial and linked to your Exodus wallet.
Exodus Predictions displays your balance in the same display currency as the one selected for Exodus Pay. Changing the display currency does not affect the asset you hold or transact with.
Your pUSD balance is separate from other balances, and is only available in Exodus Predictions.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction markets let you buy or sell predictions on the outcome of certain events.
The price of each prediction is between $0 and $1. The market's expectations for an outcome determine its current price. When an event ends, correct predictions are worth $1, while incorrect predictions are worth $0.
For example, if the market thinks there’s a 25% chance that an outcome will occur, the prediction for that outcome may trade for around $0.25. If the prediction is correct, you'll get a $1 payout for every $0.25 spent. If you bought $10 worth of it, and it turns out to be correct, you’ll receive $40 ($10 ÷ $0.25 = $40). If it's incorrect, it will be worth $0.
In Exodus, you'll be able to see the estimated payout for your prediction if it's correct. You can view this before you buy it, and also when viewing your current predictions.
It's possible to sell predictions before an event ends.
How do I access Exodus Predictions?
In Exodus Mobile, tap the profile icon.
Tap Predictions.
How do I fund Exodus Predictions?
You can use your XO Cash (XO) from your Exodus Pay balance to add funds to Exodus Predictions. Funding Exodus Predictions with USDC and USDT is not supported.
When you add funds to Predictions, your XO is converted to pUSD, which you can use to buy and sell predictions.
Payouts from selling a prediction or from a correct prediction outcome are added to your Exodus Predictions balance.
To learn more about Exodus Pay, visit: Getting started with Exodus Pay.
If you don't have an XO balance in Exodus Pay, you'll need to add funds first. To learn how, visit: How do I add money?
How do I add funds from Exodus Pay?
In Exodus Predictions, tap Fund.
If it's your first time funding, you'll see a prompt. After reviewing it, tap Agree and continue.
a) Enter the amount, or b) tap Available to fund with your entire balance, then c) tap Fund.
The minimum amount when funding your Exodus Predictions balance may vary. You'll see a message if the amount is too low.
a) Review the transaction details, and b) slide to the right to confirm.
You'll see the funds added to your balance as soon as the transaction confirms.
If you try to buy predictions before your transaction confirms, you'll see three dots next to your available balance. a) Tap the three dots to b) see your available balance and any pending funds waiting for confirmation.
How do I buy and sell predictions?
To buy predictions, select an event and choose the outcome you want to trade.
You can sell your predictions at any time until the event is over.
If you hold the prediction until the event ends, and the outcome is correct, the payout is automatically added to your balance.
How do I buy predictions?
The first step is to find the prediction you want to buy. You can either browse through a list of predictions by category or use the search tool.
Browsing predictions: a) Tap Browse Predictions, b) select the category you want to browse, and scroll through the list. c) Tap on the arrow to open an event.
Searching predictions: a) Tap the search icon and b) use the search bar to find predictions. c) You can also filter the search results by category. Tap on an event to open it.
Once you have selected an event, a) you can view the status at the top, such as when it's expected to end. b) Below, you’ll see the available outcomes and the market's current expectations for each outcome.
Tap the prediction you want to buy.
Some events will have only two available predictions, and you can select which one to buy at the bottom of the screen.
When you have selected a prediction, if it's your first time buying, you'll see a prompt. After reviewing it, tap Agree and continue.
a) Enter an amount or b) tap Available to use your full balance.
The minimum or maximum amount you can buy may vary. You may see a message if the amount is too low or too high.
Review the transaction details. a) You can check the expected amount you will receive if the outcome of the prediction is correct. To confirm, b) tap Buy.
Review the transaction details, including the fees, and slide to the right to confirm.
How do I sell predictions?
You can sell your predictions at anytime before the event ends. The price you receive depends on current market conditions.
As market expectations change over time, prices may also change accordingly.
In Exodus Predictions, tap the Active positions banner.
Next to the prediction you want to sell, tap Sell.
a) Enter the amount you want to sell or b) select the percentage you want to sell. To confirm, c) tap Sell.
Review the transaction details, including the fees, and slide to the right to confirm.
After the sale is completed, the funds will be added to your Predictions balance.
How do I receive the payout from a prediction?
Any payouts from predictions are automatically added to your Exodus Predictions balance.
The exact timing of when an outcome settles can vary. Once an event ends and the outcome is settled, any payout will be credited automatically.
What does the remaining time mean?
In Exodus Predictions, each event shows the time remaining before its prediction market closes.
Once the market is closed, you can no longer buy or sell predictions for that event.
The outcome is determined after the market is closed. The time it takes for the outcome to settle and the payouts for correct predictions can vary.
a) You can see the remaining time for each event when browsing predictions, and filter by b) Ending Soon to view events where the market is closing soon.
How can I see the rules and the status of the outcome?
When browsing predictions, you can view the rules for how each outcome is settled.
For events with only two outcomes, a) the rules are shown at the bottom of the event page. b) If you see Show more, tap to view the rules.
For events with more than two outcomes, a) tap on the arrow icon to b) view the rules. c) If you see Show more, tap to view the rules.
Below the rules, an outcome status and timeline will appear once an outcome has been proposed. It will also show if the outcome was disputed.
A dispute occurs when a proposed outcome is challenged as incorrect. After an outcome is proposed, there is a period before it is settled during which disputes can be submitted.
What are live events?
Live events are events where you can buy and sell predictions while they're in progress. For example, a live event could be a sports match in progress.
These events will show the Live status while the event is ongoing.
How do I manage my predictions?
Learn how to view your current predictions and your transaction history.
How do I view my current predictions?
In Exodus Predictions, tap on the Active positions banner.
Here you can see a list of all your active predictions, including a) the price you bought them at, b) the current value, and c) the payout if the prediction is correct.
From your list of predictions, tap on the title to open the event associated with it.
How do I view my transaction history?
a) In Exodus Predictions, b) tap on the history icon.
a) Filter by transaction type and b) view your transactions from the list.
You can tap on each transaction to view more details.
How do I withdraw funds from Exodus Predictions?
You can withdraw your balance from Exodus Prediction to Exodus Pay.
When you withdraw your Exodus Predictions balance to Exodus Pay, your pUSD is converted to XO Cash and added to your Exodus Pay balance.
How do I withdraw to Exodus Pay?
a) In Exodus Predictions, b) tap Withdraw.
a) Enter the amount or b) tap Available to withdraw all. To continue, c) tap Continue.
The minimum amount you can withdraw may vary. You'll see a message if the amount is too low.
a) Review the transaction details and confirm the amount you'll withdraw and receive. b) Slide to the right to confirm.
You'll see the funds added to your Exodus Pay balance as soon as the transaction confirms.